Originally published in March 2019.
This is insane. The west is led by simpletons without any idea of the gravity of the actions they’re proposing. Bloomberg reports that US Vice President urged the Germans to sail their warships through the Kerch Strait:
The U.S. leaned on German Chancellor Angela Merkel last month to conduct a naval maneuver in Russia’s backyard aimed at provoking President Vladimir Putin, according to three people familiar with the talks.
At a Feb. 16 meeting at the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence urged Merkel to send German warships through a narrow channel between the Crimean peninsula and mainland Russia to show Putin that Western powers won’t surrender their access to those waters, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Kerch Strait used to be half Ukrainian (via Crimea) and half Russian territory, but since Russia has added Crimea it now considers that the entire strait lies in Russian territorial waters.
Sending the German war navy into Russian waters would be considered by Moscow no different from the German army stepping on Russian soil. There is simply no doubt that if the German warships failed to heed calls to stop that they would be ultimately fired upon, exactly the way the Russians fired on Ukrainian Navy ships attempting just that in November. (The Russians do not block the right of passage to Kiev but they insist permission be asked in advance.)
Even more insanely, Merkel was actually going to do it (!) if the French went along as well, but Kiev turned it down as not provocative enough (!):
Merkel had indicated she was willing, in coordination with the French, to send a convoy through the waterway as a one-time maneuver but Poroshenko said that wasn’t enough to solve his problem — he wants to ensure the strait is open permanently, the people said.
It fell on Paris (ie the clown Macron) to recognize some lines should not be crossed:
France also refused to take part, judging the idea as an unnecessary provocation, according to another official who declined to be identified.
It should be noted that the Kerch Strait is extremely shallow, and only passable to miniature warship. It connects the Black Sea and Azov Seas. To its left and right is Russian territory and on that territory are Russian anti-ship missile batteries and military airfields. Not only would entering the Kerch be provocative and to Russia a violation of its borders, but the NATO ships would have been easy pickings totally at the mercy of the Russians.