Epidemiologist Dr. Knut Wittkowski: ‘Without Lockdowns the Covid-19 Epidemic Would Have Been Over by Now’
A hard-hitting interview with a very direct man
What an interview! Wittkowski doesn’t mince words or sugarcoats anything. This is an almost ruthlessly direct man. He says not doing anything in particular about Covid-19 would have killed 2% of all cases with symptoms, but lockdowns are going to drag out the outbreak and make things worse, as well as nearly guarantee that there will be a second wave of infections.
He also has the first plausible explanation of what happened in Wuhan and why the Chinese were able to finally seemingly contain it (the outbreak had burned itself out, as leaving schools open very late into the outbreak laid the groundwork for herd immunity to build). Worth a watch:
Wittkowski is a German who teaches in New York:
Dr. Wittkowski received his PhD in computer science from the University of Stuttgart and his ScD (Habilitation) in Medical Biometry from the Eberhard-Karls-University Tuüingen, both Germany.
He worked for 15 years with Klaus Dietz, a leading epidemiologist who coined the term “reproduction number”, on the Epidemiology of HIV before heading for 20 years the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University, New York.
Dr. Wittkowski is currently the CEO of ASDERA LLC, a company discovering novel treatments for complex diseases from data of genome-wide association studies.
I'd say that both #Italy and #Spain are seeing good, consistent reductions in news cases and deaths which means that they have seen potentially their peak.
I do not understand why lockdowns need to continue beyond mid April.#COVID19 pic.twitter.com/3GoeB4LW1a
— Charlotte Gracias (@Charlotte3003G) April 6, 2020
Completely predictable #Covid_19 deaths around the world are starting to decline at the end of the flu season. This is Holland.
Duck-test: There was no unusual excess mortality. There was no shortages of ICU's. It had the same mortality demography and comorbidity as the flu. pic.twitter.com/Pw3es31f5d
— ᴢᴀᴘʀᴜᴅᴇʀ ɪɴᴄ (@patricksavalle) April 6, 2020