Why Trump Can’t End the Trade War and Is Only Going to Keep Intensifying It
Trump needs the war to blame the recession on if the bubble bursts before November 2020
If recession hits as 60 percent of Americans now fear, 57 percent would blame Trump. They would be entirely correct to do so. While candidate Trump warned the recovery was a phony bubble that was doing very little for most people, the President Trump rather than deflate the bubble, lauded the economy and took credit for stock market valuations.
According to a recent poll by Harvard-Harris, 57 percent of Americans would blame President Trump if the U.S. slid into a recession in the next year. Additionally, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, only 33 percent said the Federal Reserve Bank, which influences the economy for example by setting the federal funds bank lending rate, would be to blame.
Asked who was at fault considering the recent economic turmoil, 35 percent of respondents still named Trump, while 30 percent blamed the U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs, which were imposed by the Trump administration also.
More than 60 percent of participants said that they were concerned that a recession was going to hit the United States within six months. An about equal amount said they believed that the U.S.-China tariffs were hurting the U.S. more than they were hurting China.
It is beyond Trump’s power to definitely postpone the recession. At this point even a deal with China and zero interest rates may not be enough to push it back until after the election. That being the case, his only shot at re-election if the economic unraveling hits before November 2020 is to be able to say it was caused by taking on China and is justified as a temoporary sacrifice in a war.
He’s already practicing the sell:
“Let me tell you, if I wanted to do nothing with China, our stock market, our stock market would be 10,000 points higher than it is right now but somebody had to do this,” the president told reporters at the White House on Wednesday. “It was out of control and they were out of control.”